What Is The Half-Life of Hype?

In My Opinion ...

What is the duration of the hype`s effectiveness? For instance, how long do supporters remain sufficiently enthusiastic after a political rally to actively engage in campaigning or voting?

I am neutral in politics. Buffons abound on either side, and I`m usually not interested. The last few years, however, and this year in particular politics has risen to a new level of absurdity that, at least for the humor in it, it deserves some attention. Also I find this an intriguing exploration of human behavior.

Regarding a particular campaign, such as the Trump campaign, there appears to be a dilemma, particularly concerning mail-in ballots. Republicans view the mail-in ballot initiative as a convenient means for election fraud. Many of them refuse to use the mail-in system on moral grounds and opt to vote in person on election day instead. However, this strategy may be flawed.

Regardless of its legitimacy, the opposing side will likely utilize the mail-in system to their advantage. Republicans may have no choice but to follow suit or risk losing the election. Even if it`s deemed unethical, if opponents are leveraging it, Republicans may have to do the same to avoid defeat.

One advantage of the Trump campaign is the large public rallies where supporters become highly energized. How long does this energy last? I speculate that half of it dissipates within a day as the hormonal effects wane in the bloodstream. This suggests that the "half-life" of hype is approximately 24 hours, which is a crucial factor to consider.

In the marketing realm, the half-life of advertisements—when their effectiveness drops to 50%—is extensively studied. This phenomenon is outlined in a paper by Prasad A. Naik from the Graduate School of Management at the University of California, Davis. half_life.pdf The paper discusses the example of a popular shoe advertisement with a half-life of three weeks. When it comes to political rallies, particularly those employing marketing techniques like Neuro-Linguistic Programming (NLP), it appears that the effectiveness of hype diminishes much faster. My estimate is 24 hours.

If I were providing advice to the campaign, which I am not, I would propose, when mail-in ballots are available, establishing a system whereby at every rally, attendees are encouraged to fill out and mail their ballots on the same day or the following day at the latest. A support network could be organized at each rally location to facilitate this process.

I believe this strategy could significantly impact the outcome of the election.